DISCOVER · BEFORE THE REQUEST
AI Opportunity Canvas
Decides whether an observation made in a partner's work is worth writing up as an opportunity statement and carrying to the Request gate, and in what form.
Strategic
Do this now. Work through the fields below with the partner in the room, in one sitting of about ninety minutes, then record the output at the end. Open "Why this matters" for the reasoning, when to use the canvas and where it goes wrong.
Outcome and trigger
Start from the outcome the partner is accountable for. If it is not theirs to move, the opportunity is not ours to carry.
Write the business outcome in the partner's own words and the measure they already report against it: cases closed within standard, decisions upheld on appeal, cost per transaction, time to a first answer. Good is an outcome a minister, board or executive already asks about.
Name the event that makes this worth acting on in the next twelve months where it was tolerated before: a statute or policy change, a contract ending, a budget line moving, a new data source, a service failure that reached the top. Good has a date or a decision attached; general availability of a technology does not count.
Where the work hurts
Capture what we observed in the partner's work, a few lines per cell. The sixth cell records the material that backs the other five.
Decisions the partner's people make often and find hard: slow, inconsistent between people, escalated more than they should be, or made without information that exists elsewhere. Write who decides, what they lack and what a wrong call costs. Good is a decision the partner's own people would name unprompted.
Tasks done many times a day or week that follow a recognisable shape: classifying, drafting the same letter, checking a submission against rules, moving data between screens. Write the task, the volume in the partner's own unit and who does it. Good is a task with a volume the partner already counts.
Waiting, re-keying, chasing, re-checking, rework after an error. Write where in the process the delay sits, whether it is a person's time or the elapsed time of the case, and what the partner already tracks that shows it. Good is a delay the partner already reports, not one we inferred.
Moments where the people the partner serves wait, repeat themselves, receive an answer they cannot act on or give up. Write the moment, the evidence (complaints, drop-off, contact volume) and whether a vulnerable group feels it first. Good is a moment with evidence the partner collected before we arrived.
Knowledge that exists but does not reach the person who needs it in time: buried in documents, held by one expert, spread across systems that do not talk to each other. Write what is needed, where it lives today and who has to go and get it. Good is a gap a named role can confirm in one conversation.
List what we have seen rather than been told, against the cells above: a queue report, a complaint log, a rework figure the partner publishes, a process map. Good is material the partner produced before we arrived, so nobody can say it was shaped to fit.
Statement and stakes
The need in one sentence, then where it sits and what it costs to ignore. All three will be read by people who were not in the room, so they must survive without us there to explain them.
Write four parts in order: the need (what the partner must deliver), the gap (what they cannot do to standard), the observed cause (drawn from the grid above), and the cost (to the outcome, to the citizen or customer, or in money). No tool, model or rung of the autonomy ladder belongs in this sentence.
Name the strategic priority, statutory duty or executive commitment this outcome sits under, and how directly: it is the priority itself, a known blocker to it, or adjacent. Good is a line the sponsoring executive would agree with unprompted; if adjacent is the honest answer, write adjacent.
Write what happens if nothing is done for the next twelve months. If the honest answer is that the partner would tolerate it, the opportunity is weaker than it looks and the decision at the foot of the canvas should say so.
Value hypothesis
A hypothesis, written as a range, that shaping and value planning will test. Keep how much the benefit could be worth separate from how likely it is to arrive.
Pick the primary type: cashable, non-cashable, avoided cost, quality or strategic. Add a secondary only if the partner would fund the work on the secondary alone.
Lower and upper bound, in the partner's own unit (hours a week, cases a month, days of cycle time, or money) over the first twelve months after the change lands. The lower bound is the figure the partner would still act on; if there is no such figure, stop here.
State what has to be true for the upper half of the range to arrive: which data must be accessible and owned, which process must stay stable, which team must adopt it, which policy must change. Each condition should be something a named role could check within a few weeks.
Low, medium or high, with one line on why. Keep it separate from the range: a large potential with low probability is a different conversation from a modest one that is nearly certain.
Ready for the front door
Tick only what is true. Anything left unticked is either a reason to hold or the first task after entering the Request gate.
Where this goes
The Request gate is one route in and no wrong door. The bar for entering is an honest statement of the need and a value range we would defend in front of the partner; the answer is for Shape to work out.
Record the option chosen and two or three sentences on why, written for someone who was not in the room. If it is Hold or Park, name what would change the decision.
The partner sponsor who will put their name to the request and the relationship-layer contact who will shape it. If redirecting, name the neighbour and the role there that has agreed to receive it.
Write the date the request will be logged and the date 02 Demand Shaping is booked. If the decision is Hold or Park, write the review date instead.
Why this matters
Most of what we carry to the front door was never requested; we noticed it while sitting with a partner. Left as an observation it arrives later as a solution in disguise, usually "build us an agent", and the need beneath it is gone before anyone shapes it. Fixing the need, the trigger and a value range before the request exists gives the relationship layer something worth ranking, and spares the partner a shaping conversation that starts by taking their answer away.
Use it when
- A partner describes a decision they dread, a queue they cannot clear or a report nobody reads, and you can see a shape in it.
- A minister, board or executive has named an outcome the partner is accountable for and the current process will not deliver it.
- You have watched the same information re-keyed, re-checked or re-explained at every handover.
- A complaint, audit finding or service review has shown where citizens or customers wait, repeat themselves or give up.
- Something has changed (statute or policy, a budget line, a contract ending, a new data source) that makes a long-tolerated problem worth acting on.
What a good one looks like
- The need statement carries all four parts, names a cost, and contains no tool, model or autonomy rung.
- The observation cells that matter are backed by something the partner already produces: a queue report, a complaint log, a rework figure.
- The partner has seen the range, agreed the unit it is written in, and has not asked for the top of it to be quoted; every condition for the upper half is something a named role could check.
- The counterfactual names who feels the cost of inaction first and by when, in the partner's own measure.
- The partner's operational lead recognises the statement as their problem in their own words.
Where it goes wrong
- Writing the answer as the opportunity. "The partner needs an assistant that drafts responses" is a solution written as a need; the canvas should say what they cannot do and what it costs them.
- Padding the observation grid. Thin entries in every cell are worse than sharp entries in two; leave a cell empty rather than invent friction the partner did not describe.
- Quoting the upper bound as the value. A range with no conditions attached is a point estimate with a decorative spread, and the front door will treat the top of it as a promise.
- Skipping the trigger. Without a why-now the opportunity competes with everything the partner has tolerated for years, and loses.